Copper bar market status and future market forecast

2022 by the macro and epidemic and other aspects of the impact of the domestic copper rod market has been less prosperous, into the second half of the year, copper price fluctuations, consumer demand setback again, the pressure on the enterprises, the industry screams of suffering, copper rod business shipments more difficult, the market is anxiously looking forward to the dawn, which we are more concerned about the recent problems, do the following collation: 1, copper rod production off-peak season is which months, off-peak season production were to how much:

1, copper rod production off-peak season is which months, off-peak season production were to how much.

A: The general peak season for copper rods is May, June, October to February, the low season is March, April, July, August, but due to the epidemic and the economic environment in 2022, the peak season is not obvious, the industry estimates that this year the overall peak season will be delayed the start of the early end of the situation, the preliminary expectation is that this year in November ushered in a small wave of demand, the following year, the end of February.

2, whether the enterprise downstream through traders or directly to the terminal, the proportion of roughly how much? What are the main downstream customers corresponding to the terminal area? How much of the total production can be accounted for by real estate, machinery and equipment respectively. Which months are the low and high sales seasons for different terminals.

A: The downstream supply of enterprises directly to the terminal, traders account for a very small proportion, the proportion of about 90%, copper rods downstream customers mainly docking is plumbing, sanitary ware, valves, refrigeration accessories and other fields, the real estate category accounted for about 80%-90%, other power transmission, machinery and equipment used in the field of copper or special alloy copper rods, accounting for a small proportion of about 10-20%.

3, the current performance of each field downstream, and the overall downstream demand? What is the current performance of downstream orders in each area compared to the second quarter? How is the year-on-year performance?

A: 2022 by the epidemic, brass rod the most important consumer market sanitary ware, valves and other downstream areas of demand has been in a weak state, coupled with the downturn in the real estate industry, dragging down the overall downstream consumption; according to Mysteel research, due to the current downstream demand in the off-season, sanitary ware, valve field orders ring than the second quarter showed a downward trend, the overall orders compared to the same period last year performance fell by about 55%. According to the feedback of a number of sanitary ware enterprises, the current market orders are few and far between, the willingness of enterprises to stock up is not high, unwilling to leave too much inventory, the overall downstream start-up rate is insufficient, the market sentiment is relatively depressed.

4, the different needs of the terminal area of enterprises and customers of the settlement method? Point price? Weekly average price? Monthly average price? Is there a billing period? How much is the normal finished product inventory. How long does it normally take from the time raw materials are purchased to the time the finished product leaves the factory.

A: At present, 80% of the enterprises and the customer's settlement method using cash and carry, no accounting period, 10% of enterprises will choose to pay 30% of the purchase price, delivery of the final payment, and 10% of enterprises directly factory according to the inventory and purchase of raw materials price of their own pricing.

Depending on the size of the order, it generally takes 1-3 days from the purchase of raw materials to the processing of finished products out of the factory.

Market views:

1、How do you feel about the actual market in the last two years? How do you feel about prices in general? If prices fall, do you have any ideas about replenishment? Or whether customers will have the idea of replenishment? In the first half of the previous year, are customers actively replenishing their stocks? Are there sufficient stocks of raw materials for downstream customers?

A: According to the research, most of the industry believes that in the past two years the market economy downward speed is faster, enterprises are under greater pressure, for the future trend of copper prices still hold a bearish majority; market economic downturn in the background, the price decline will not cause customers a large number of replenishment, the first and second quarter copper prices fluctuate greatly, customers will be based on their own needs, cautious replenishment.

2、The general view on the future of the consumer and property market.

A: In the global economic growth slowdown, copper consumption is weak under the pressure of the future consumption space is expected to be limited, in general, the real estate market in the past two years showed a downward trend, the current overall has been in the bottoming stage, most of the current domestic construction delivery period in more than two years, with the real estate market long-term mechanism continues to improve and national policies to further support, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.